618 
WTNT32 KNHC 240237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...KIRK WEAKER AND ACCELERATING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk
was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h).  A
rapid westward motion is anticipated for the next day or two.
A slight decrease in forward motion is expected by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in the maximum winds is forecast during
the next several days. It is possible that Kirk could degenerate
into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it
moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

697 
WTNT22 KNHC 240241 CCA
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  35.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  35.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  34.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z  9.8N  39.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.0N  43.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.3N  47.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 10.6N  50.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 11.7N  56.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 13.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 14.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N  35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

440 
WTNT42 KNHC 240239
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Kirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair
of ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has
likely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a
closed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or
surface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT
passes showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the
alleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical
depression for now.

The ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center
of Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the
west, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast
has also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all
forecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a
tropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving
rapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the
system will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result
in a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean.
The NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance
envelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.

It is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from
becoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models
do not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next
couple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the
forecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if
it hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower
motion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong
vertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the
system from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast
has been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global
and regional dynamical model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z  9.4N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z  9.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 10.0N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 10.3N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 10.6N  50.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 11.7N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 13.0N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 14.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

708 
FONT12 KNHC 240238
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018               
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

254 
WTNT33 KNHC 240244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 48.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. The storm
is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated through Monday.  An eastward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Leslie is forecast to be merge with a larger non-tropical
low by the middle of the week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

536 
WTNT23 KNHC 240243
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  48.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  48.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  48.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.1N  48.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.1N  47.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N  46.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N  48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

255 
WTNT43 KNHC 240244
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

There has been little change in the organization of the subtropical
cyclone over the past several hours.  Patches of deep convection
continue to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation
but there is a lack of convective banding elsewhere. The initial
intensity remains 35 kt, which is based on a partial ASCAT pass that
detected 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the storm
this evening.  Leslie is not forecast to strengthen over the next
day or so due to dry air and moderate vertical shear.  By 48 hours,
some increase in wind is predicted as Leslie interacts with an
approaching baroclinic zone.

Leslie jogged west-southwestward for a few hours this evening, but
has since turned southwestward and slowed down.  The system is
forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, then begin a faster
eastward motion on Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough
and associated cold front digs southeastward over the central
Atlantic. The global models indicate that the front will overtake
Leslie in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for the system
to become an extratropical low at that time.  The evolution of the
system becomes even more complex after that, as the GFS shows Leslie
being absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure area to the north,
while some of other global models maintain post-tropical Leslie as
the primary low pressure area.  For now, the NHC forecast maintains
continuity with the previous advisories and calls for the system to
merge with the larger front/low by 72 h, but there is a high level
of uncertainty in the exact evolution and structure of the system.
Regardless of the details of the evolution, a large non-tropical
low pressure area with gale- to storm-force winds is expected to be
over the east-central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 33.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 33.1N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 33.1N  47.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 32.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

228 
FONT13 KNHC 240244
PWSAT3
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN